Analysis of AK Wilks' Caesar shift method

[glurk Profile Website]

Although I disagree with AKWilks as much as anyone, I think he's probably a really good guy in real life. He certainly is convinced that TK is Zodiac, possibly with a bit too much enthusiasm. But we can disagree with his views without it being personal. So, without any comment of my own, here is what he recently posted at the unazod forum. Moderators, Michael, if this is inappropriate I apologize. I'm not posting this to "fan the flames" and I hope it does not. It's a direct quote from AK that I am copying here in the interest of fairness:

There is an old saying.

"When you have the law, bang on the law. When you have the facts, bang on the facts. When you have neither, bang on the table."

Looks like some critics of the Kaczynski could be Zodiac theory are doing a lot of banging on the table!

Instead of dealing with all of the information from Doug Oswell, all of the word and phrase matches, instead of finding an error in the analysis by UBER CRITIC DORANCHAK OF 0.003% for closely bunched TheodoreJ Kaczynski in Moby Dick, instead of finding a flaw in the Kite Wilks code work, instead of dealing with results of 0.003% in TWO codes which prospectively is an incredible 0.00009%, instead of dealing with Aquiman's points and results...they are back to the tired old game of launching personal attacks on me.

Yawn.

As for "discredited theory", what are you talking about?

The critics said the results would be 100%, 90% surely at least 60%.

They were 3 to 5%.

Then I predicted that the results of Doranchak's study on closely bunched findings of the TJK name would be around 1%. I was called "delusional", "sad" and "not living in reality."

Well, it turns out I was wrong.

It was not 1%.

It was 0.003% or 3/10 of 1%.

As for other aspects of the case:

http://dailyherald.com/article/20110519/news/705199967/

Yes thats me, thats Doug Oswell and me the "discredited" theorist quoted in the newspaper, and on ABC News, and who was along with Doug the basis for the FBI requesting the DNA of Ted Kaczynski in the Tylenol Murders. And along with Doug Oswell, Zander Kite and others, the basis for police requesting DNA and other evidence from Ted Kaczynski in the Zodiac case and some other unsolved murders.

Some people research, work, study, write, debate and learn. Others can't - they criticize. World, meet Aud8us and LIVE55.

Now they are even attacking Aquiman, even though he does not endorse the Kite Wilks code work and agrees with them on most of their views about it, simply because he states that the numbers are closer to what I predicted and far from what the critics predicted, and because he states that Doranchak has NOT proven that the Kite Wilks method is wrong. Thanks to him for posting what he thinks, without regards to my feelings or those of the critics, but with regard for the truth.

By the way, thanks again to Doranchak and Aquiman for doing the work and analysis, even if we fully (dor) disagree or partially (aqui) disagree on its meanings. And thanks to Michael Butterfield, who does an excellent job debunking many of the myths and lies in the Zodiac case, and exposing the sham cases built against people like Allen and Gaikowski. Michael and I have very different approaches to the case, but to this day he has always treated me with respect, and very nicely gave public credit to Morf and I for sending him Zodiac documents we obtained via FOIA requests.

EDIT: I was hesitant to post this at all, I had intended to no longer post in this thread, but since AK cannot post here, my conscience made me do it. Even though I STRONGLY disagree with his "code work" he is still a damn good researcher and has found things via FOIA that no one else has. And has shared those freely, and has always been respectful as well. So give him a break, even if you disagree with him, as I do.

[smithy Profile]

Not sure where this is heading, or why you'd think AK needs a break glurk, except that you're a nice bloke!

For the record (and I've not been in on this, since rather cynically I thought from the start it mught be a waste of important efforts trying to negate the Caeser approach) I've got to say:

- I've never thought there was any table-banging in this debate,
- I haven't seen Aq being picked on (which would be a joke in any case, since he's quite boisterous enough to defend himself I'm sure), and
- Apart from the exasperation expressed in respect to his continued belief in this "process" I don't think AK's been badly treated. (And he wasn't ever going to be convinced, necessarily).

The problem now, though, is Ted K's validity as a subject now seems to be being tangled up with this Caeser stuff.
I don't have a "POI" (and I think even the phrase is ridiculous), but I have been, and remain, interested in the idea that Ted would be one of the individuals capable of conducting Z's criminal "career", and his murderous behaviour.
That's a real pity.

[glurk Profile Website]

smithy-

I don't think TK is the absolute worst suspect ever, for Zodiac. But I certainly don't think him the best either. But even if I did - even if I was 100% convinced that TK WAS Zodiac, I would still have to dismiss that entire 0,3,6,9 Caesar shift stuff as rubbish. Because it is.

The two things certainly need to be addressed separately.

So far as AKWilks, well, I can only say that he has written in a way that does not engage in (too many) personal attacks or name-calling, if any. I have to respect that. I just have to. If anything, regarding name-calling or such, I probably owe him an apology more than he owes me. I'm just being fair, or trying to be. I don't think his calling doranchak a 'welcher' is fair, LOL, but it was all in debate.

I cannot help but find AK likeable as a person, and as a researcher, and a message board poster, even if I COMPLETELY disagree with him. I'm not apologizing for him, or making excuses for what I find is his sometimes "shyster-like" behavior. I'm probably being TOO NICE, but dammit, I'm only stating what I feel, and being honest.

So sue me.

-glurk

[LIVE55 Profile]

What Smithy said.
And glurk as well.Probably should've listened to my first instinct
and pass-by this Thread.

[smithy Profile]

Too right and well said you blokes.
I better add - quickly - that I'd go along with not "the absolute worst suspect ever" as about the right temperature; I'm not pushing him. No no no! A quick look back at the threads under the "suspects" section, particularly that of Count Marco, has some very good points dead-set against the idea.

[Zsearcher Profile]

AK Wilks complains about imaginary bias displayed by Doranchak, stating that Dave only wanted to display results which were favorable to the anti-Ted crowd, but AK Wilks himself is the king of bias and manipulation. Every thing he does is done to push the few good looking results he finds (at least to him), while glossing over inconsistencies, things that do not add up, and other solutions or code work that negates his work. In addition, he finds meaning in the meaningless such as Ted's name in 4 lines of the 340 (with some questionable choices of symbols as letters) and has never gone into any code work without being 100 percent completely biased towards finding Ted K. in everything Zodiac ever wrote. This is the same guy who was picking 5 letters out of a paragraph and calling it intentionally placed. He's a flim flam man and a Ted as Z propagandist. Oh and he's a really nice guy who makes FOIA requests constantly.

[aquiman Profile]

For the record, I don't feel I was "picked on." We have "discussions" all the time at work regarding each other's analyses and results. There's always something new to learn. Statistics is just one of those things that can be argued about, warped, misconstrued, etc. The information is out there and people have the opportunity to digest it and formulate their own opinions as to what it means. It's all good.

[Menecrates Profile]

Who's "the best suspect ever"?

No one I know.

[MrBungle Profile]

I gave up on AK ages ago. I attempted to post on his and morf's board some time ago, but, after a short while, I just couldn't bear banging my head against the wall as AK just repeated the same things over and over and over again (regardless of if someone was able to give a more sensible explanation). No offense meant to AK, but discussing Zodiac with him is like discussing Zodiac with a tape recorder.

[doranchak Profile Website]

AK is keen for one of us to post an image of the finding of Kaczynski's name in the Caesar shift grid corresponding to the third line of the Graysmith 340 solution. I will oblige:



And I will repeat my conclusion that such an arrangement of letters is not significant, due to the many alternate arrangements of words and names that are possible within the same overly flexible system.